Will Donald Trump say “Arch / Ballroom”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Arch / Ballroom” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jun 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 21, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Arch / Ballroom
- Probability
- 53% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…a clean city. Can we admit that? Thank God you're building the ballroom. Thank God you're getting rid of those awful bike lanes. By the…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Ballroom update. Can you give us a ballroom update? Everything is going up really fast.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Arch / Ballroom |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Ballroom / Arch | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Arch / Ballroom”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Arch / Ballroom” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jun 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Arch / Ballroom” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Arch / Ballroom’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/arch-or-ballroom (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=arch%20%2F%20ballroom · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP