Will Donald Trump say “JD / Vance”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “JD / Vance” at 5 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 27, 2025 (36%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes no no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
JD / Vance
- Probability
- 54% · n=14
- Settled
- 5/14 (36%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…saw Howard, I saw all my guys. I saw Marco, I saw JD, I saw everybody. We had a meeting and I said, "We got…
…it. So, we have a thing that we're going to be doing. JD and the Untouchables behind me are -- they've done an incredible job.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | JD / Vance |  Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | JD / Vance | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | JD / Vance | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (6 of 8 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 23, 2026 | JD / Vance | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | JD / Vance |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 15, 2026 | J.D. / Vance | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 15, 2026 | JD / Vance | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 26, 2026 | JD / Vance | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 15, 2026 | JD / Vance | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 12, 2026 | JD / Vance | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 8, 2026 | JD / Vance | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 7, 2026 | JD / Vance | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | JD / Vance | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JD/Vance | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “JD / Vance”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “JD / Vance” at 5 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 27, 2025 (36%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “JD / Vance” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘JD / Vance’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/jd-or-vance (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=jd%20%2F%20vance · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP