Will Donald Trump say “American Dream”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “American Dream” at 21 of 33 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 1, 2025 (64%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=33, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes no yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 100¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
American Dream
- Probability
- 64% · n=33
- Settled
- 21/33 (64%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 38 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | American Dream |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (5 of 31 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 30, 2026 | American Dream | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | American Dream |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 8, 2026 | American Dream | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | American Dream | Polymarket | Yes | 7 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Aug 5, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Yes | 14 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 6, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 4, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 3, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 30, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Jun 24, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 22, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 22, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 5, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 4, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 1, 2026 | American Dream | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 1, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 1, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 28, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 17, 2026 | American Dream | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 17, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 16, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 12, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 11, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 9, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 28, 2026 | American Dream | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 21, 2026 | American Dream | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 1, 2025 | American Dream | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “American Dream”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “American Dream” at 21 of 33 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 1, 2025 (64%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “American Dream” next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=33). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘American Dream’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/american-dream (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=american%20dream · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP