Will Donald Trump say “Reflecting / Pool”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Reflecting / Pool” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 18, 2026 (25%), most recently on Jun 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 31% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

31%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=pool%20%2F%20reflecting

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Reflecting / Pool

Probability
31% · n=4
Settled
1/4 (25%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 5 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Jun 29, 2026Reflecting / PoolKalshiNo0
Jun 24, 2026Reflecting / PoolKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 24, 2026Reflecting / PoolKalshiYes–
Jun 20, 2026Reflecting / PoolKalshiNo–
Jun 18, 2026Reflecting / PoolKalshiNo0

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Reflecting / Pool”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Reflecting / Pool” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 18, 2026 (25%), most recently on Jun 24, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Reflecting / Pool” next time?
31%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Reflecting / Pool’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/pool-or-reflecting (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=pool%20%2F%20reflecting · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP