Will Donald Trump say “California”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “California” at 7 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 18, 2025 (47%), most recently on Oct 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes yes no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
California
- Probability
- 45% · n=15
- Settled
- 7/15 (47%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…you see some of the things that we're finding in Minnesota and California, we have crooked politicians running the places, it really gets bad. Countless…
…yesterday. They were, but that's where they live. But they'll they're in California. They go all over the world. I don't know if their husbands…
…and she's a liar. Similar scams have been uncovered in Maine, in California, and many other mostly Democrat run states. And it's in Republican areas,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 16 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | California |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | California |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 5, 2026 | California | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | California | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | California | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | California | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 4, 2026 | California | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | California | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 16, 2026 | California | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | California | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | California | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 7, 2026 | California | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 9, 2026 | California | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 15, 2025 | California | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 22, 2025 | California | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 18, 2025 | California | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “California”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “California” at 7 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 18, 2025 (47%), most recently on Oct 1, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “California” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘California’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/california (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=california · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP