Will Donald Trump say “Hoax”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hoax” at 12 of 45 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 14, 2025 (27%), most recently on Apr 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 21% (n=45, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 10 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Hoax
- Probability
- 21% · n=45
- Settled
- 12/45 (27%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…on energy and terminated the Green New Scam. One of the greatest hoaxes in the history of our country. And our policy is very simple.…
…This is the group that came up with the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax, the Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine hoax, climate change, open borders, whoever wins AI,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 46 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Hoax |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Hoax |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 21, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Hoax | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Hoax | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Hoax | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Hoax | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Hoax | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 2, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Hoax | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Hoax | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Hoax | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 28, 2025 | Hoax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Hoax | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Hoax”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hoax” at 12 of 45 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 14, 2025 (27%), most recently on Apr 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Hoax” next time?
- 21%, from settlement history (n=45). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Hoax’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hoax (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hoax · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP