Will Donald Trump say “Third Term”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Third Term” at 9 of 25 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 31, 2025 (36%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=25, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes yes no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Third Term
- Probability
- 43% · n=25
- Settled
- 9/25 (36%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…been that way since the very beginning of my second term, or third term depending on the way you want to define it. And I…
Every settled listing
newest first · 25 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Third Term |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Third Term |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (0 of 8 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (30 of 42 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 11 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (3 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (16 of 18 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 6 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (25 of 36 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Third term | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 31, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Third term | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Third Term | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Third Term | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 25, 2025 | Third Term | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Third term | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Third Term”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Third Term” at 9 of 25 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 31, 2025 (36%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Third Term” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=25). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Third Term’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/third-term (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=third%20term · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP