Will Donald Trump say “Mental Institution”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Mental Institution” at 20 of 35 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 8, 2025 (57%), most recently on Aug 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=35, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Mental Institution
- Probability
- 38% · n=35
- Settled
- 20/35 (57%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Ukrainian woman. Our men are gone. They're lost. They're dead. They're in mental institutions. They're walking around, they have no arms. They have no legs…
Every settled listing
newest first · 37 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Mental Institution |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Mental Institution |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Mental Institution | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 24, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Mental Institution | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Mental institution | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Mental institution | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Mental institution | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Mental institution | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Mental Institution | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Mental Institution | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Mental institution | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Mental Institution | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Mental Institution”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Mental Institution” at 20 of 35 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 8, 2025 (57%), most recently on Aug 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Mental Institution” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=35). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Mental Institution’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/mental-institution (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=mental%20institution · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP