Will Donald Trump say “Birthday”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Birthday” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 10, 2025 (40%), most recently on Jun 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Birthday
- Probability
- 48% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 1 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Birthday”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Birthday” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 10, 2025 (40%), most recently on Jun 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Birthday” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Birthday’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/birthday (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=birthday · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP