Will Donald Trump say “First Term”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “First Term” at 27 of 47 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 11, 2026 (57%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=47, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

52%from settlement history only · n=47counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes yes yes no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

First Term

Probability
52% · n=47
Settled
27/47 (57%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida · Oct 23, 2026 · 44:46In transcript

…the largest tax cuts in American history. I did it in my first term also, including no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa · Oct 22, 2026 · 47:32In transcript

…know that? 400. It's not bad. And if you remember in my first term, we had some countries taking advantage of us and I gave…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 36:16In transcript

…It's all made in the USA. And I love Space Force because Space Force, you know, we had a great first term. We had the

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 2:26In transcript

…incomes for Americans have soared to the highest level in history, 87,000 on average, surpassing the prior record that I set in my first term.

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 53 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 24, 2026First TermKalshiNo–
Sep 22, 2026First TermKalshiYes1
Sep 21, 2026First TermKalshiNo–
Aug 28, 2026First TermKalshiYes2
Aug 21, 2026First TermKalshiYes5
Aug 14, 2026First TermKalshiYes1
Aug 10, 2026First TermKalshiNo0
Aug 6, 2026First TermKalshiNo–
Aug 5, 2026First TermKalshiYes2
Aug 4, 2026First TermKalshiNo–
Aug 4, 2026First TermKalshiNo–
Aug 3, 2026First TermKalshiNo0
Jul 31, 2026First TermKalshiYes6
Jul 30, 2026First TermPolymarketNo0
Jul 30, 2026First TermKalshiNo0
Jul 28, 2026First TermKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jul 27, 2026First TermKalshiYes2
Jul 24, 2026First TermKalshiNo0
Jul 22, 2026First TermPolymarketYes2
Jul 22, 2026First TermKalshiYes2
Jul 20, 2026First TermKalshiNo–
Jul 15, 2026First TermKalshiYes3
Jul 7, 2026First TermKalshiNo0
Jul 4, 2026First TermKalshiYes–
Jun 26, 2026First TermKalshiYes5
Jun 24, 2026First TermKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 24, 2026First TermKalshiYes–
Jun 23, 2026First TermKalshiYes2
Jun 22, 2026First TermKalshiNo0
Jun 18, 2026First TermKalshiNo0
Jun 17, 2026First TermKalshiNo0
Jun 17, 2026First TermKalshiYes1
Jun 16, 2026First TermKalshiNo0
Jun 16, 2026First TermKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 16, 2026First TermKalshiYes1
Jun 15, 2026First TermKalshiNo0
Jun 13, 2026First TermKalshiNo–
Jun 10, 2026First TermKalshiYes2
Jun 7, 2026First TermKalshiYes–
Jun 5, 2026First TermKalshiYes6
May 30, 2026First TermKalshiNo–
May 27, 2026First TermKalshiYes–
May 22, 2026First TermKalshiYes–
May 22, 2026First TermKalshiYes–
May 20, 2026First TermKalshiYes–
May 19, 2026First TermKalshiYes–
May 7, 2026First TermKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 4, 2026First TermKalshiYes–
Apr 29, 2026First TermPolymarketYes–
Mar 25, 2026First TermKalshiYes–
Mar 19, 2026First TermKalshiNo–
Mar 5, 2026First TermPolymarketYes–
Feb 11, 2026First TermPolymarketNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “First Term”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “First Term” at 27 of 47 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 11, 2026 (57%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “First Term” next time?
52%, from settlement history (n=47). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘First Term’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/first-term (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=first%20term · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP