Will Donald Trump say “Secret Service”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Secret Service” at 11 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 18, 2024 (69%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 60% (n=16, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes no no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Secret Service
- Probability
- 60% · n=16
- Settled
- 11/16 (69%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…of cool. And I walk off the stage. She said, "You're driving Secret Service crazy. They're running all over the place. Running, running, running." Because…
…Coordination Center, our prosecutors are working alongside FBI and HSI agents, the Secret Service, Treasury and State on the same targets, so that every case…
Every settled listing
newest first · 16 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Secret Service |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Secret Service |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Secret Service | Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Secret Service | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Secret Service | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 31, 2026 | Secret Service | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 17, 2026 | Secret Service | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 10, 2026 | Secret Service | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Secret Service | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Secret Service | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Secret Service | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Secret Service | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 17, 2024 | Secret Service | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 16, 2024 | Secret Service | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Secret Service | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 18, 2024 | Secret Service | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Secret Service”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Secret Service” at 11 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 18, 2024 (69%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Secret Service” next time?
- 60%, from settlement history (n=16). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Secret Service’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/secret-service (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=secret%20service · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP