Will Donald Trump say “UFC”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “UFC” at 24 of 48 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 1, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 66% (n=48, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
66%from settlement history only · n=48Next: Monthly window, Oct 31, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
UFC
- Probability
- 66% · n=48
- Settled
- 24/48 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
We're protecting this nation. We're protecting your security. IT'S LIKE A UFC FIGHT ON THE WHITE HOUSE LAWN. Thank you so much. God bless you.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 48 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | UFC |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (25 of 36 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 31, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | 12 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 30, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | 10 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | UFC |  Polymarket | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Jun 24, 2026 | UFC | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 21, 2026 | UFC | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | UFC | Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Jun 20, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 17, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | UFC | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (6 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 10, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 7, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 5, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 31, 2026 | UFC | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 31, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 30, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 22, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 17, 2026 | UFC | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 11, 2026 | UFC | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 30, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 26, 2026 | UFC | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UFC | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 6, 2026 | UFC | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 5, 2026 | UFC | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 31, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 22, 2026 | UFC | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 13, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | UFC | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 23, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 1, 2026 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 1, 2025 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 5, 2025 | UFC | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 20, 2025 | UFC | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 20, 2025 | UFC | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 13, 2025 | UFC | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 6, 2025 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 1, 2025 | UFC | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Sep 1, 2025 | UFC | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “UFC”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “UFC” at 24 of 48 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 1, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “UFC” next time?
- 66%, from settlement history (n=48). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘UFC’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/ufc (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=ufc · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP