Prime Minister's Questions
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 893 word markets on the Prime Minister's Questions series since 2025, on 190 different words; most reliably said: “Reform” (24 of 28). Next: PMQs, Oct 28, 2026 (16 words listed).
Next: PMQs ·
16 words listed · Occasion page
Who counts: Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi| Word | Apr 29pmqs | May 20pmqs | Jun 3pmqs | Jun 10pmqs | Jun 17pmqs | Aug 26pmqs | Sep 2pmqs | Sep 9pmqs | Sep 16pmqs | Oct 21latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Apr 29 pmqs | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, May 20 pmqs | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Jun 3 pmqs | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Jun 10 pmqs | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Jun 17 pmqs | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Sep 9 pmqs | 2 times: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Sep 16 pmqs, counts as said | Settled yes: Ukraine / Ukrainian, Oct 21 pmqs | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 67%n=2 from settlement history | 70¢ Kalshi |
| Benefit / Welfare | Not listed: Benefit / Welfare, Apr 29 pmqs | Not listed: Benefit / Welfare, May 20 pmqs | Not listed: Benefit / Welfare, Jun 3 pmqs | Not listed: Benefit / Welfare, Jun 10 pmqs | Not listed: Benefit / Welfare, Jun 17 pmqs | Not listed: Benefit / Welfare, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Benefit / Welfare, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Benefit / Welfare, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Benefit / Welfare, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled yes: Benefit / Welfare, Oct 21 pmqs | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 72¢ Kalshi |
| EU / European Union | Not listed: EU / European Union, Apr 29 pmqs | Not listed: EU / European Union, May 20 pmqs | Not listed: EU / European Union, Jun 3 pmqs | Not listed: EU / European Union, Jun 10 pmqs | Not listed: EU / European Union, Jun 17 pmqs | Not listed: EU / European Union, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: EU / European Union, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: EU / European Union, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: EU / European Union, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled yes: EU / European Union, Oct 21 pmqs | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 22¢ Kalshi |
| Energy | Not listed: Energy, Apr 29 pmqs | Not listed: Energy, May 20 pmqs | Not listed: Energy, Jun 3 pmqs | Not listed: Energy, Jun 10 pmqs | Not listed: Energy, Jun 17 pmqs | Not listed: Energy, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Energy, Sep 2 pmqs | 3 times: Energy, Sep 9 pmqs, counts as said | 0 times: Energy, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled yes: Energy, Oct 21 pmqs | 2/367% | 6/967% | 55%n=9 from settlement history | 60¢ Kalshi |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Apr 29 pmqs | 1 time: Iran / Iranian, May 20 pmqs, counts as said | 0 times: Iran / Iranian, Jun 3 pmqs | 2 times: Iran / Iranian, Jun 10 pmqs, counts as said | 0 times: Iran / Iranian, Jun 17 pmqs | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, Aug 26 pmqs | 0 times: Iran / Iranian, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Sep 9 pmqs | 1 time: Iran / Iranian, Sep 16 pmqs, counts as said | Settled yes: Iran / Iranian, Oct 21 pmqs | 4/850% | 4/850% | 54%n=8 from settlement history | 24¢ Kalshi |
| Budget | Not listed: Budget, Apr 29 pmqs | Not listed: Budget, May 20 pmqs | Not listed: Budget, Jun 3 pmqs | Not listed: Budget, Jun 10 pmqs | Not listed: Budget, Jun 17 pmqs | Not listed: Budget, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Budget, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Budget, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Budget, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Budget, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 7/888% | 53%n=8 from settlement history | 77¢ Kalshi |
| NATO | 0 times: NATO, Apr 29 pmqs | 0 times: NATO, May 20 pmqs | 0 times: NATO, Jun 3 pmqs | 4 times: NATO, Jun 10 pmqs, counts as said | 2 times: NATO, Jun 17 pmqs, counts as said | Settled yes: NATO, Aug 26 pmqs | 1 time: NATO, Sep 2 pmqs, counts as said | 1 time: NATO, Sep 9 pmqs, counts as said | 1 time: NATO, Sep 16 pmqs, counts as said | Settled no: NATO, Oct 21 pmqs | 6/1060% | 9/2241% | 52%n=22 from settlement history | 41¢ Kalshi |
| Trump | 0 times: Trump, Apr 29 pmqs | 0 times: Trump, May 20 pmqs | 0 times: Trump, Jun 3 pmqs | 0 times: Trump, Jun 10 pmqs | 0 times: Trump, Jun 17 pmqs | Settled no: Trump, Aug 26 pmqs | 0 times: Trump, Sep 2 pmqs | 0 times: Trump, Sep 9 pmqs | 1 time: Trump, Sep 16 pmqs, counts as said | Settled yes: Trump, Oct 21 pmqs | 2/1020% | 12/4825% | 40%n=48 from settlement history | 28¢ Kalshi |
| Tax | Not listed: Tax, Apr 29 pmqs | Not listed: Tax, May 20 pmqs | Not listed: Tax, Jun 3 pmqs | Not listed: Tax, Jun 10 pmqs | Not listed: Tax, Jun 17 pmqs | Not listed: Tax, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Tax, Sep 2 pmqs | 0 times: Tax, Sep 9 pmqs | 0 times: Tax, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled yes: Tax, Oct 21 pmqs | 1/333% | 6/1735% | 37%n=17 from settlement history | 62¢ Kalshi |
| NHS / Healthcare | 3 times: NHS / Healthcare, Apr 29 pmqs, counts as said | 3 times: NHS / Healthcare, May 20 pmqs, counts as said | 8 times: NHS / Healthcare, Jun 3 pmqs, counts as said | 4 times: NHS / Healthcare, Jun 10 pmqs, counts as said | 4 times: NHS / Healthcare, Jun 17 pmqs, counts as said | Not listed: NHS / Healthcare, Aug 26 pmqs | 0 times: NHS / Healthcare, Sep 2 pmqs | 0 times: NHS / Healthcare, Sep 9 pmqs | 0 times: NHS / Healthcare, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled no: NHS / Healthcare, Oct 21 pmqs | 5/956% | 5/956% | 30%n=9 from settlement history | 14¢ Kalshi |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 29 pmqs | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 20 pmqs | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 3 pmqs | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 10 pmqs | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 17 pmqs | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 2 pmqs | 5 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 9 pmqs, counts as said | 0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 21 pmqs | 1/333% | 1/714% | 29%n=7 from settlement history | 18¢ Kalshi |
| Russia / Russian | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Apr 29 pmqs | Not listed: Russia / Russian, May 20 pmqs | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Jun 3 pmqs | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Jun 10 pmqs | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Jun 17 pmqs | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled no: Russia / Russian, Oct 21 pmqs | 0/10% | 3/560% | 28%n=5 from settlement history | 28¢ Kalshi |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 0 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 29 pmqs | 0 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, May 20 pmqs | 1 time: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 3 pmqs, counts as said | 0 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 10 pmqs | 0 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 17 pmqs | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Sep 2 pmqs | 1 time: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Sep 9 pmqs, counts as said | 0 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 21 pmqs | 2/825% | 2/922% | 27%n=9 from settlement history | 20¢ Kalshi |
| Brexit | Not listed: Brexit, Apr 29 pmqs | Not listed: Brexit, May 20 pmqs | Not listed: Brexit, Jun 3 pmqs | Not listed: Brexit, Jun 10 pmqs | Not listed: Brexit, Jun 17 pmqs | Not listed: Brexit, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Brexit, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Brexit, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Brexit, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled no: Brexit, Oct 21 pmqs | 0/10% | 1/425% | 26%n=4 from settlement history | 21¢ Kalshi |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 29 pmqs | Not listed: China / Chinese, May 20 pmqs | Not listed: China / Chinese, Jun 3 pmqs | Not listed: China / Chinese, Jun 10 pmqs | Not listed: China / Chinese, Jun 17 pmqs | Not listed: China / Chinese, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: China / Chinese, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: China / Chinese, Sep 9 pmqs | 0 times: China / Chinese, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled no: China / Chinese, Oct 21 pmqs | 0/20% | 0/20% | 18%n=2 from settlement history | 20¢ Kalshi |
| Immigrant / Immigration | 0 times: Immigrant / Immigration, Apr 29 pmqs | 0 times: Immigrant / Immigration, May 20 pmqs | 0 times: Immigrant / Immigration, Jun 3 pmqs | 1 time: Immigrant / Immigration, Jun 10 pmqs, counts as said | 0 times: Immigrant / Immigration, Jun 17 pmqs | Settled no: Immigrant / Immigration, Aug 26 pmqs | 0 times: Immigrant / Immigration, Sep 2 pmqs | 0 times: Immigrant / Immigration, Sep 9 pmqs | 0 times: Immigrant / Immigration, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled no: Immigrant / Immigration, Oct 21 pmqs | 1/1010% | 3/2612% | 13%n=26 from settlement history | 16¢ Kalshi |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 22, 2026 17:20 UTC.
Every word
1–40 of 191, most settled first · page 1 of 3| Word | Jul 8pmqs | Aug 26pmqs | Sep 2pmqs | Sep 9pmqs | Sep 10pmqs | Sep 16pmqs | Sep 30pmqs | Oct 14pmqs | Oct 21pmqs | Oct 21latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Not listed: Ukraine, Jul 8 pmqs | Settled yes: Ukraine, Aug 26 pmqs | 2 times: Ukraine, Sep 2 pmqs, counts as said | 1 time: Ukraine, Sep 9 pmqs, counts as said | Settled yes: Ukraine, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Ukraine, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Ukraine, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 21 pmqs | 4/4100% | 17/3253% | 62%n=32 from settlement history |
| Reform | Not listed: Reform, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Reform, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Reform, Sep 2 pmqs | 1 time: Reform, Sep 9 pmqs, counts as said | Not listed: Reform, Sep 10 pmqs | 1 time: Reform, Sep 16 pmqs, counts as said (our count 1 · the market settled no) | Settled no: Reform, Sep 30 pmqs | 1 time: Reform, Oct 14 pmqs, counts as said (our count 1 · the market settled no) | Settled yes: Reform, Oct 21 pmqs | Settled yes: Reform, Oct 21 pmqs | 5/683% | 24/2886% | 41%n=26 from settlement history |
| Healthcarenever said | Not listed: Healthcare, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Healthcare, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Healthcare, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Healthcare, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Healthcare, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Healthcare, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Healthcare, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Healthcare, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Healthcare, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Healthcare, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 0/180% | 21%n=18 from settlement history |
| Scotland | Settled no: Scotland, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Scotland, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Scotland, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Scotland, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Scotland, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Scotland, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled no: Scotland, Sep 30 pmqs | 4 times: Scotland, Oct 14 pmqs, counts as said | Not listed: Scotland, Oct 21 pmqs | Settled no: Scotland, Oct 21 pmqs | 1/425% | 6/1540% | 47%n=14 from settlement history |
| Epstein | Not listed: Epstein, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Epstein, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Epstein, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Epstein, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Epstein, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Epstein, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Epstein, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 1/157% | 17%n=15 from settlement history |
| Mr Speaker20+ times | Settled yes: Mr Speaker 20+ times, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 20+ times, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 20+ times, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 20+ times, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 20+ times, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 20+ times, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled no: Mr Speaker 20+ times, Sep 30 pmqs | Settled yes: Mr Speaker 20+ times, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 20+ times, Oct 21 pmqs | Settled yes: Mr Speaker 20+ times, Oct 21 pmqs | 3/475% | 12/1486% | 67%n=14 from settlement history |
| NHS | Not listed: NHS, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: NHS, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: NHS, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: NHS, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: NHS, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: NHS, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled no: NHS, Sep 30 pmqs | 0 times: NHS, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: NHS, Oct 21 pmqs | Settled no: NHS, Oct 21 pmqs | 0/30% | 9/1369% | 44%n=12 from settlement history |
| Iran | Not listed: Iran, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Iran, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Iran, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Iran, Sep 9 pmqs | Settled no: Iran, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Iran, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Iran, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Iran, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Iran, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Iran, Oct 21 pmqs | 0/10% | 7/1354% | 40%n=13 from settlement history |
| Mr Speaker30+ times | Settled yes: Mr Speaker 30+ times, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 30+ times, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 30+ times, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 30+ times, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 30+ times, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 30+ times, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled no: Mr Speaker 30+ times, Sep 30 pmqs | Settled yes: Mr Speaker 30+ times, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 30+ times, Oct 21 pmqs | Settled yes: Mr Speaker 30+ times, Oct 21 pmqs | 3/475% | 6/1346% | 48%n=12 from settlement history |
| Defense / Defence | Not listed: Defense / Defence, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Defense / Defence, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Defense / Defence, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Defense / Defence, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Defense / Defence, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Defense / Defence, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Defense / Defence, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Defense / Defence, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Defense / Defence, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Defense / Defence, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 8/1267% | 55%n=12 from settlement history |
| Debtnever said | Not listed: Debt, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Debt, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Debt, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Debt, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Debt, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Debt, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Debt, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Debt, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Debt, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Debt, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 0/120% | 23%n=12 from settlement history |
| Nuclear | Not listed: Nuclear, Jul 8 pmqs | Settled no: Nuclear, Aug 26 pmqs | 0 times: Nuclear, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Nuclear, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Nuclear, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Nuclear, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Nuclear, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 21 pmqs | 0/20% | 4/1136% | 31%n=11 from settlement history |
| Green | Not listed: Green, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Green, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Green, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Green, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Green, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Green, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Green, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Green, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Green, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Green, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 3/1127% | 38%n=11 from settlement history |
| NHS / National Health Service | Not listed: NHS / National Health Service, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: NHS / National Health Service, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: NHS / National Health Service, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: NHS / National Health Service, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: NHS / National Health Service, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: NHS / National Health Service, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: NHS / National Health Service, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: NHS / National Health Service, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: NHS / National Health Service, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: NHS / National Health Service, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 6/1060% | 40%n=10 from settlement history |
| King | Not listed: King, Jul 8 pmqs | Settled yes: King, Aug 26 pmqs | 1 time: King, Sep 2 pmqs, counts as said | 0 times: King, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: King, Sep 10 pmqs | 0 times: King, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: King, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: King, Oct 14 pmqs | Settled no: King, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: King, Oct 21 pmqs | 2/540% | 5/1050% | 32%n=10 from settlement history |
| Israel / Israeli | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 2/1020% | 23%n=10 from settlement history |
| Russia | Not listed: Russia, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Russia, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Russia, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Russia, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Russia, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Russia, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Russia, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Russia, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Russia, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Russia, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 5/956% | 40%n=9 from settlement history |
| Ceasefire | Not listed: Ceasefire, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Ceasefire, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Ceasefire, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Ceasefire, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Ceasefire, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Ceasefire, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Ceasefire, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 2/922% | 28%n=9 from settlement history |
| Northern Ireland | Settled no: Northern Ireland, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Northern Ireland, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Northern Ireland, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Northern Ireland, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Northern Ireland, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Northern Ireland, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled no: Northern Ireland, Sep 30 pmqs | 0 times: Northern Ireland, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Northern Ireland, Oct 21 pmqs | Settled yes: Northern Ireland, Oct 21 pmqs | 1/425% | 2/825% | 33%n=8 from settlement history |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jul 8 pmqs | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Aug 26 pmqs | 0 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 21 pmqs | 0/20% | 1/812% | 23%n=8 from settlement history |
| Mr. Speakerevery time 10+ times | Not listed: Mr. Speaker 10+ times, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Mr. Speaker 10+ times, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Mr. Speaker 10+ times, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Mr. Speaker 10+ times, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Mr. Speaker 10+ times, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Mr. Speaker 10+ times, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Mr. Speaker 10+ times, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Mr. Speaker 10+ times, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Mr. Speaker 10+ times, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Mr. Speaker 10+ times, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 7/7100% | 68%n=7 from settlement history |
| Europe | Settled no: Europe, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Europe, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Europe, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Europe, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Europe, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Europe, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Europe, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Europe, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Europe, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Europe, Oct 21 pmqs | 0/10% | 1/714% | 26%n=7 from settlement history |
| United States | Settled no: United States, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: United States, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: United States, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: United States, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: United States, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: United States, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: United States, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: United States, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: United States, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: United States, Oct 21 pmqs | 0/10% | 1/714% | 26%n=7 from settlement history |
| Urgent | Settled no: Urgent, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Urgent, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Urgent, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Urgent, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Urgent, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Urgent, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Urgent, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Urgent, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Urgent, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Urgent, Oct 21 pmqs | 0/10% | 1/714% | 28%n=7 from settlement history |
| Thousand / Million / Billion15+ times | Not listed: Thousand / Million / Billion 15+ times, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Thousand / Million / Billion 15+ times, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Thousand / Million / Billion 15+ times, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Thousand / Million / Billion 15+ times, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Thousand / Million / Billion 15+ times, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Thousand / Million / Billion 15+ times, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Thousand / Million / Billion 15+ times, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Thousand / Million / Billion 15+ times, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Thousand / Million / Billion 15+ times, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Thousand / Million / Billion 15+ times, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 4/667% | 46%n=6 from settlement history |
| Mr Speaker25+ times | Not listed: Mr Speaker 25+ times, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 25+ times, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 25+ times, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 25+ times, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 25+ times, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 25+ times, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 25+ times, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 25+ times, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 25+ times, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Mr Speaker 25+ times, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 4/667% | 50%n=6 from settlement history |
| Poverty | Settled yes: Poverty, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Poverty, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Poverty, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Poverty, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Poverty, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Poverty, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Poverty, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Poverty, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Poverty, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Poverty, Oct 21 pmqs | 1/1100% | 4/667% | 61%n=6 from settlement history |
| U-turn | Not listed: U-turn, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: U-turn, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: U-turn, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: U-turn, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: U-turn, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: U-turn, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: U-turn, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: U-turn, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: U-turn, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: U-turn, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 3/650% | 40%n=6 from settlement history |
| United Kingdom | Not listed: United Kingdom, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: United Kingdom, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: United Kingdom, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: United Kingdom, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: United Kingdom, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: United Kingdom, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: United Kingdom, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: United Kingdom, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: United Kingdom, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: United Kingdom, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 3/650% | 45%n=6 from settlement history |
| Million / Billion / Trillion5+ times | Settled no: Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times, Sep 9 pmqs | Settled yes: Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled no: Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times, Sep 30 pmqs | 2 times: Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times, Oct 14 pmqs, below the threshold | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times, Oct 21 pmqs | Settled no: Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times, Oct 21 pmqs | 1/520% | 2/633% | 35%n=5 from settlement history |
| Clean / Green | Not listed: Clean / Green, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Clean / Green, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Clean / Green, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Clean / Green, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Clean / Green, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Clean / Green, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Clean / Green, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Clean / Green, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Clean / Green, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Clean / Green, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 1/617% | 32%n=6 from settlement history |
| Denmark / Greenland | Not listed: Denmark / Greenland, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Denmark / Greenland, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Denmark / Greenland, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Denmark / Greenland, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Denmark / Greenland, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Denmark / Greenland, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Denmark / Greenland, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Denmark / Greenland, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Denmark / Greenland, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Denmark / Greenland, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 1/617% | 38%n=6 from settlement history |
| King / Queen | Not listed: King / Queen, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: King / Queen, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: King / Queen, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: King / Queen, Sep 9 pmqs | Settled no: King / Queen, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: King / Queen, Sep 16 pmqs | Settled no: King / Queen, Sep 30 pmqs | 0 times: King / Queen, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: King / Queen, Oct 21 pmqs | Settled no: King / Queen, Oct 21 pmqs | 0/40% | 1/617% | 18%n=6 from settlement history |
| Liz / Truss | Not listed: Liz / Truss, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Liz / Truss, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Liz / Truss, Sep 2 pmqs | 0 times: Liz / Truss, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Liz / Truss, Sep 10 pmqs | 0 times: Liz / Truss, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Liz / Truss, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Liz / Truss, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Liz / Truss, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Liz / Truss, Oct 21 pmqs | 0/20% | 1/617% | 19%n=6 from settlement history |
| Constructivenever said | Not listed: Constructive, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Constructive, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Constructive, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Constructive, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Constructive, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Constructive, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Constructive, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Constructive, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Constructive, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Constructive, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 0/60% | 30%n=6 from settlement history |
| Dialoguenever said | Not listed: Dialogue, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Dialogue, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Dialogue, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Dialogue, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Dialogue, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Dialogue, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Dialogue, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Dialogue, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Dialogue, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Dialogue, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 0/60% | 30%n=6 from settlement history |
| Mandelsonnever said | Not listed: Mandelson, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Mandelson, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Mandelson, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Mandelson, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Mandelson, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Mandelson, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Mandelson, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Mandelson, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Mandelson, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Mandelson, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 0/60% | 24%n=6 from settlement history |
| Rules-basednever said | Not listed: Rules-based, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Rules-based, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Rules-based, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Rules-based, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Rules-based, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Rules-based, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Rules-based, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Rules-based, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Rules-based, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Rules-based, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 0/60% | 30%n=6 from settlement history |
| Venezuelanever said | Not listed: Venezuela, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Venezuela, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Venezuela, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Venezuela, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Venezuela, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Venezuela, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Venezuela, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Venezuela, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Venezuela, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Venezuela, Oct 21 pmqs | – | 0/60% | 34%n=6 from settlement history |
| Labourevery time | Settled yes: Labour, Jul 8 pmqs | Not listed: Labour, Aug 26 pmqs | Not listed: Labour, Sep 2 pmqs | Not listed: Labour, Sep 9 pmqs | Not listed: Labour, Sep 10 pmqs | Not listed: Labour, Sep 16 pmqs | Not listed: Labour, Sep 30 pmqs | Not listed: Labour, Oct 14 pmqs | Not listed: Labour, Oct 21 pmqs | Not listed: Labour, Oct 21 pmqs | 1/1100% | 5/5100% | 64%n=5 from settlement history |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 12Our transcript counts matched how 401 of 407 settled words resolved (98.5%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | PMQsWhat will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? | no transcript | 18 | 8 yes · 10 no | – |
| Oct 21, 2026 | PMQsWhat will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | no transcript | 14 | 9 yes · 5 no | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | PMQsWhat will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Official transcript | 14 | 7 yes · 7 no | 10/11 (91%) |
| Sep 30, 2026 | PMQsWhat will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | no transcript | 14 | 0 yes · 14 no | – |
| Sep 16, 2026 | PMQsWhat will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? | Official transcript | 15 | 4 yes · 11 no | 14/15 (93%) |
| Sep 10, 2026 | PMQsWhat will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | no transcript | 17 | 9 yes · 8 no | – |
| Sep 9, 2026 | PMQsWhat will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? | Official transcript | 13 | 6 yes · 7 no | 13/13 (100%) |
| Sep 2, 2026 | PMQsWhat will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? | Official transcript | 11 | 3 yes · 8 no | 11/11 (100%) |
| Aug 26, 2026 | PMQsWhat will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | no transcript | 14 | 6 yes · 8 no | – |
| Jul 8, 2026 | PMQsWhat will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | no transcript | 29 | 17 yes · 12 no | – |
| Jun 30, 2026 | PMQsWhat will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | no transcript | 29 | 15 yes · 14 no | – |
| Jun 17, 2026 | PMQsWhat will Keir Starmer say during Prime Minister's Questions? | Official transcript | 14 | 5 yes · 9 no | 14/14 (100%) |
Citeparrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/prime-ministers-questions · words: /api/v1/history?entity=prime-ministers-questions · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP