Will “Northern Ireland” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 27, 2026, “Northern Ireland” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 2 of 8 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Nov 19, 2025 (25%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 4 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Northern Ireland
- Probability
- 33% · n=8
- Settled
- 2/8 (25%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 3 of 4 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…good deal for food producers, for farmers in this country and for Northern Ireland in relation to energy costs there, as well as, hopefully, more…
…wait for the Budget. We are keen to support high streets and hospitality up and down the country—in England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and, indeed, Wales.
…the hon. Lady and her colleagues on precisely that. I was in Northern Ireland with the Northern Ireland Secretary last week. Our first responsibility is…
…said that higher taxes are needed to fund rising welfare spending. In Northern Ireland, my party’s Communities Minister is taking action to reduce welfare fraud…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Q14. Last week in Northern Ireland, a former Member of this House was convicted of the most horrific child sexual abuse against two girls. I…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Northern Ireland |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Northern Ireland | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Northern Ireland | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Northern Ireland | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Northern Ireland | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 20, 2026 | Northern Ireland | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Northern Ireland | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Northern Ireland | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Northern Ireland” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, “Northern Ireland” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 2 of 8 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Nov 19, 2025 (25%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “Northern Ireland” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Northern Ireland’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/northern-ireland (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=northern%20ireland · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP