Will “Iran / Iranian” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 4 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 20, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 4 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 4/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 28¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 54% · n=8
- Settled
- 4/8 (50%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 2 of 4 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…hon. Friend the Home Secretary has established. On the issues related to Iran, obviously we have seen the issues at RAF Fairford recently. They have…
…that there have been 50 arrests in the last year linked to Iran, and I have to say that this Government deserve praise. They deserve…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 20, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Iran / Iranian” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 4 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 20, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “Iran / Iranian” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP