Will “Ceasefire” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Ceasefire” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 2 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 25, 2026 (22%), most recently on Apr 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.

28%from settlement history only · n=9counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=ceasefire

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Prime Minister's Questions

Ceasefire

Probability
28% · n=9
Settled
2/9 (22%)
Last 8 PMQs
said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 9 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
May 20, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Apr 29, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Apr 22, 2026CeasefireKalshiYes1
Apr 15, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Mar 25, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Mar 18, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Mar 11, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Mar 4, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo0
Feb 25, 2026CeasefireKalshiYes2

Questions

How often is “Ceasefire” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Ceasefire” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 2 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 25, 2026 (22%), most recently on Apr 22, 2026.
What is the probability “Ceasefire” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
28%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Ceasefire’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/ceasefire (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=ceasefire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP