Will “Russia / Russian” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Russia / Russian” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 10, 2025 (60%), most recently on May 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 4 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 28¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Russia / Russian
- Probability
- 28% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 2 of 4 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we do not produce it, Britain and Europe will buy it from Russia. In July, the Prime Minister said: “The question isn’t whether Britain will…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…steering through the Elections Bill. She said: “I have not read the Russia report”.––[Official Report, Elections Public Bill Committee, 26 October 2021; c. 384.] They…
…3% by 2030. The threats are now. Argentina is threatening the Falklands—now. Russia is threatening us in the North sea—now. The Prime Minister did not…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…should unite the House in sending complete condemnation of that attack by Russia, and complete solidarity to support both Germany and Ukraine, and that position…
…now use every diplomatic tool at our disposal, including sanctions against networks and enablers, to crack down on hostile states such as Russia and Iran?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Russia / Russian |  Kalshi | No | – |
| May 20, 2026 | Russia / Russian |  Polymarket | Yes | 9 |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Russia / Russian | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Russia / Russian | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Russia / Russian | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Russia / Russian” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Russia / Russian” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 10, 2025 (60%), most recently on May 20, 2026.
- What is the probability “Russia / Russian” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Russia / Russian’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/russia-or-russian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=russia%20%2F%20russian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP