What is the probability “China / Chinese” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?

18%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “China / Chinese” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Name: Prime Minister's Questions: “China / Chinese” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, “China / Chinese” was not said at the Prime Minister's Questions on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 18% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 4 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.

18%from settlement history only · n=2Next: PMQs, Oct 28, 2026 · counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only
Market: 14¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 14:41 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Prime Minister's Questions

China / Chinese

Probability: 18% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)
Last 8 PMQs: said in 0 of 4 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Munira Wilson (Twickenham) (LD)otherPrime Minister's Questions, 14 October 2026 · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…have lain derelict for over a decade. The most recent owner, a Chinese business man, has now been sanctioned by the British Government and has…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.