What is the probability “Israel / Israeli” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?

23%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Israel / Israeli” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Name: Prime Minister's Questions: “Israel / Israeli” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, “Israel / Israeli” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 2 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 11, 2026 (20%), most recently on Mar 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 23% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.

23%from settlement history only · n=10counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no no no no no no
Streak: not said the last 7 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 10:07 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Prime Minister's Questions

Israel / Israeli

Probability: 23% · n=10
Settled: 2/10 (20%)
Last 8 PMQs: said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Claire Hanna (Belfast South and Mid Down) (SDLP)otherPrime Minister's Questions, 21 October 2026 · Oct 21, 2026In transcript

…in Gaza, badly burned, having watched her mother be killed by an Israeli airstrike. On the same day, Irish writer Sally Rooney’s publisher announced that…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Andy BurnhamspeakerPrime Minister's Questions, 9 September 2026 · Sep 9, 2026In transcript

…decades who have talked about the importance of the two-state solution between Israel and Palestine. Words from any politician about a two-state solution will be…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.