Prime Minister's Questions, Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Markets
29 words · 15 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | Yes | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Poverty | Yes | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Defense | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 45%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Scotland | Yes | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Constituent / Constituency | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ban | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deep / Deeply | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hate / Hatred | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NHS 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Record Investment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Social Media | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thank 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Waiting List | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mr. Speaker 20+ times | No | 85%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Mr. Speaker 30+ times | No | 44%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Green | No | 42%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Condolences | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crime / Criminal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Record Funding | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shadow | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World Cup | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Victim | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Northern Ireland | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Urgent | No | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| United States | No | 26%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Europe | No | 25%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 11%n=36 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event-20260610161904195 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP