Will “Russia” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Russia” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 5 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (56%), most recently on Feb 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 5/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 28¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Russia
- Probability
- 40% · n=9
- Settled
- 5/9 (56%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we do not produce it, Britain and Europe will buy it from Russia. In July, the Prime Minister said: “The question isn’t whether Britain will…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…away. He also spent the last 48 hours trying to unsay that Russia influenced the 2016 referendum when we all heard him say it. Does…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…3% by 2030. The threats are now. Argentina is threatening the Falklands—now. Russia is threatening us in the North sea—now. The Prime Minister did not…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…on defence—almost double. There is war in Europe. Yesterday, Germany confirmed that Russia was behind the attack on Leipzig airport. Tensions are so high that…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…now use every diplomatic tool at our disposal, including sanctions against networks and enablers, to crack down on hostile states such as Russia and Iran?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Russia |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Russia | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Russia |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Russia | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Russia” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Russia” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 5 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (56%), most recently on Feb 25, 2026.
- What is the probability “Russia” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Russia’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/russia (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=russia · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP