Will “Budget” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Budget” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 7 of 8 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 3, 2025 (88%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 4 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4 of them.
- Last 10
- 7/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 79¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Budget
- Probability
- 53% · n=8
- Settled
- 7/8 (88%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 4 of 4 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 7 by speakers the rule does not count.
…Dispatch Box. The right hon. Lady will have to wait for the Budget. The right hon. Lady comes here every week and poses as the…
…Alan Milburn and he said that the review was due before the Budget. The Prime Minister has kicked it into the long grass. The Budget…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Budget |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Budget | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Budget | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Budget | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Budget | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Budget | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Budget | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Budget | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Budget” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Budget” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 7 of 8 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 3, 2025 (88%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “Budget” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Budget’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/budget (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=budget · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP