What is the probability “Debt” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?

23%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Debt” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Name: Prime Minister's Questions: “Debt” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Debt” was not said at the Prime Minister's Questions on any of the 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 23% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.

23%from settlement history only · n=12counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
Streak: not said the last 10 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 12:26 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Prime Minister's Questions

Debt

Probability: 23% · n=12
Settled: 0/12 (0%)
Last 8 PMQs: said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Daisy Cooper (St Albans) (LD)otherPrime Minister's Questions, 21 October 2026 · Oct 21, 2026In transcript

Q7. Three million households are in debt on their energy bills, pushing up everyone’s energy bills by around £50 a year to cover it. As…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Mrs BadenochotherPrime Minister's Questions, 2 September 2026 · Sep 2, 2026In transcript

…the cost of Government borrowing rose to its highest in 18 years. How does the Prime Minister plan to tackle the Government’s rising debt costs?

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Ed Davey (Kingston and Surbiton) (LD)otherPrime Minister's Questions, 15 July 2026 · Jul 15, 2026In transcript

…does he share my fear that when it comes to Britain’s national debt, the plan of the right hon. Member for Makerfield (Andy Burnham) is…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

David LammyspeakerPrime Minister's Questions, 8 July 2026 · Jul 8, 2026In transcript

I am grateful to my hon. Friend. We owe a profound debt of gratitude to the Gurkhas who have served this country courageously. We are…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.