What is the probability “United Kingdom” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?

45%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “United Kingdom” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Name: Prime Minister's Questions: “United Kingdom” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, “United Kingdom” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Nov 12, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 24, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.

45%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 3/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes yes
Streak: said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 03:20 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Prime Minister's Questions

United Kingdom

Probability: 45% · n=6
Settled: 3/6 (50%)
Last 8 PMQs: said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Sir John Whittingdale (Maldon) (Con)otherPrime Minister's Questions, 21 October 2026 · Oct 21, 2026In transcript

…Argentina to the international tribunal to try to stop the exploitation of oil reserves around the Falkland Islands, which is authorised by the United Kingdom?

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Dave Doogan (Angus and Perthshire Glens) (SNP)otherPrime Minister's Questions, 9 September 2026 · Sep 9, 2026In transcript

…the coming weeks, energy bills will rise again for households across the United Kingdom; within the last few days, five major mortgage lenders have pushed…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

David LammyspeakerPrime Minister's Questions, 8 July 2026 · Jul 8, 2026In transcript

…to grant Ruth Ellis, the last woman to be hanged in the United Kingdom, a conditional pardon. [Hon. Members: “Hear, hear.”] While the pardon does…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.