Will “Nuclear” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Nuclear” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 4 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (36%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 31% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 4 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes no no no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Nuclear
- Probability
- 31% · n=11
- Settled
- 4/11 (36%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 0 of 4 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…when the then Labour leader wanted us to leave NATO, disarm our nuclear deterrent and defund the Army, so I will not be taking any…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…be invested in drones and autonomous weapons—the largest ever investment—strengthen the UK’s nuclear capability, upgrade our naval bases in the most significant way for 45…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…two years was the largest ever devolution settlement; the UK’s first small nuclear reactor, in Anglesey; investing £14 billion in Welsh rail; and a pay…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2026 | Nuclear |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Nuclear |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Nuclear | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Nuclear | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Nuclear | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Nuclear | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Nuclear | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Nuclear” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Nuclear” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 4 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (36%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Nuclear” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 31%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Nuclear’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/nuclear (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=nuclear · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP