Prime Minister's Questions, Oct 21, 2026
Polymarket What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Markets
14 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform | Yes | 55%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Mr Speaker 20+ times | Yes | 55%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Budget | Yes | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Defence | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mr Speaker 30+ times | Yes | 38%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Wales | Yes | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mr Speaker 12+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Northern Ireland | Yes | 21%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 17%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| NHS | No | 54%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times | No | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Scotland | No | 36%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| King / Queen | No | 26%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Immigration | No | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 16:07 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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