Will “NATO” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “NATO” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 9 of 22 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 29, 2026 (41%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=22, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 4 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 41¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
NATO
- Probability
- 52% · n=22
- Settled
- 9/22 (41%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 3 of 4 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…our commitments to him and his country, and we will honour our NATO commitments, as I have said every time that I have appeared at…
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…the defence of this nation—that was the reason—and we will honour our NATO commitments: 3.5% by 2035, and a target date for 3%. That will…
…shadow Home Secretary, when the then Labour leader wanted us to leave NATO, disarm our nuclear deterrent and defund the Army, so I will not…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…the spending review we will set out a plan to meet our NATO commitments by 2035. There is no problem with our commitment to defence.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 22 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | NATO |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 16, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | NATO |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 17, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 20, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Mar 11, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 25, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Feb 19, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 12, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 29, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “NATO” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “NATO” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 9 of 22 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 29, 2026 (41%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “NATO” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=22). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘NATO’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/nato (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=nato · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP