Will “Tax” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tax” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 6 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 20, 2025 (35%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=17, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 4 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 61¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Tax
- Probability
- 37% · n=17
- Settled
- 6/17 (35%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 2 of 4 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…and remove VAT from electricity bills, which is what we have delivered—a tax cut. The right hon. Lady asks about the big decisions, and I…
…a beauty salon owner who is struggling with the impact of Labour’s tax rises. She told me that she is dipping into her pension to…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…announced that he was leaving the country. That is £330 million of taxes walking out the door because of this Labour Government—every year, £330 million.…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
In terms of “what has he cut?”, tax is the simple answer to that question. Within days of taking office, I indicated that we would…
…right hon. Member for Ashton-under-Lyne (Angela Rayner) who could not count her taxes, not the right hon. Member for Sheffield Heeley (Louise Haigh) who could…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 17 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Tax |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Tax | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Tax | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Tax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Tax | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Tax | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Tax | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Tax | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Tax |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 27, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Tax | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Tax” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tax” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 6 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 20, 2025 (35%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “Tax” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=17). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Tax’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/tax (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=tax · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP