Will “Rules-based” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Rules-based” was not said at the Prime Minister's Questions on any of the 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Rules-based
- Probability
- 30% · n=6
- Settled
- 0/6 (0%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Rules-based |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Rules-based | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Rules-based | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Rules-based | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Rules-based | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Rules-based | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Rules-based” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Rules-based” was not said at the Prime Minister's Questions on any of the 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “Rules-based” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 30%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Rules-based’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/rules-based (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=rules%20based · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP