Will “United States” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “United States” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 1 of 7 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (14%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 26% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
United States
- Probability
- 26% · n=7
- Settled
- 1/7 (14%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Trump. I understand the Prime Minister’s reluctance to criticise the President of United States, but does he agree that directly aiding Putin in this way…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…not surrender our base at Diego Garcia—we are in discussions with the United States about that—and we will always respect the rights of the Falkland…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…returned home after walking for 108 days across 3,000 miles in the United States to raise funds for Scottish Action for Mental Health. He has…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | United States |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 30, 2026 | United States | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 10, 2026 | United States | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 4, 2026 | United States | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | United States | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 22, 2026 | United States | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 15, 2026 | United States | Polymarket | No | 1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
Questions
- How often is “United States” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “United States” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 1 of 7 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (14%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “United States” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 26%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘United States’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/united-state (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=united%20state · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP