Will “Scotland” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Scotland” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 6 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 19, 2025 (40%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 4 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes yes no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 81¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Scotland
- Probability
- 47% · n=15
- Settled
- 6/15 (40%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 3 of 4 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
4 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 4 in Q&A).
…but I am very open to working with the SNP Government, Police Scotland, and Glasgow city council to deal with the issues that my hon.…
…not agree with my hon. Friend more strongly. I will be in Scotland on Friday making a speech on these issues, looking at how we…
Every settled listing
newest first · 15 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Scotland |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Scotland | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Scotland | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Scotland | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Scotland | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 20, 2026 | Scotland | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Scotland | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Scotland | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Scotland | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Scotland | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Scotland |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 27, 2025 | Scotland | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Scotland | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Scotland | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Scotland | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Scotland” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Scotland” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 6 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 19, 2025 (40%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026.
- What is the probability “Scotland” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Scotland’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/scotland (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=scotland · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP