Will “Trump” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Trump” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 12 of 48 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 20, 2025 (25%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=48, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 4 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.

40%from settlement history only · n=48Next: PMQs, Oct 28, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 4 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
29¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=trump

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Prime Minister's Questions

Trump

Probability
40% · n=48
Settled
12/48 (25%)
Last 8 PMQs
said in 2 of 4 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · settled yes

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What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · settled yes

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What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 3 by speakers the rule does not count.

Andy BurnhamspeakerqaIn transcript

…prop in Argentinian domestic politics. I raised this issue directly with President Trump just a few weeks ago. We will not allow Britain or the…

Ed DaveyotherqaIn transcript

…Can I move on to other matters? Scared of the mid-terms, President Trump has done a deal with Vladimir Putin to buy Russian diesel, ripping…

Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.

Every match in the transcript

What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · settled no

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What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · said 1 time (counts)

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Find “Trump” in this transcript

What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · settled no

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What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · not said

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What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · not said

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What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · settled no

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What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · settled yes

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Every settled listing

newest first · 51 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026TrumpPolymarketYes–
Oct 21, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Oct 14, 2026TrumpPolymarketYes1
Sep 30, 2026TrumpPolymarketNo–
Sep 16, 2026TrumpKalshiYes1
Sep 10, 2026TrumpPolymarketNo–
Sep 9, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
Sep 2, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
Aug 26, 2026TrumpPolymarketNo–
Jul 8, 2026TrumpPolymarketYes–
Jun 30, 2026TrumpPolymarketNo–
Jun 17, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
Jun 10, 2026TrumpPolymarketNo–
Jun 10, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
Jun 4, 2026TrumpPolymarketNo–
Jun 3, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
May 20, 2026TrumpPolymarketNo0
May 20, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
Apr 29, 2026TrumpPolymarketNo–
Apr 29, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
Apr 22, 2026TrumpPolymarketNo–
Apr 22, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
Apr 15, 2026TrumpPolymarketNo0
Apr 15, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
Mar 25, 2026TrumpPolymarketNo–
Mar 25, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
Mar 18, 2026TrumpPolymarketNo–
Mar 18, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
Mar 11, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
Mar 4, 2026TrumpKalshiYes1
Feb 25, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
Feb 19, 2026TrumpKalshiNo–
Feb 12, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
Feb 11, 2026TrumpPolymarketNo–
Feb 5, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
Jan 29, 2026TrumpKalshiNo–
Jan 29, 2026TrumpKalshiYes1
Jan 28, 2026TrumpPolymarketNo–
Jan 22, 2026TrumpKalshiYes3
Jan 15, 2026TrumpKalshiNo0
Jan 14, 2026TrumpPolymarketNo–
Jan 8, 2026TrumpKalshiYes4
Dec 24, 2025TrumpPolymarketYes–
Dec 18, 2025TrumpKalshiNo0
Dec 17, 2025TrumpPolymarketNo–
Dec 11, 2025TrumpKalshiYes3
Dec 10, 2025TrumpPolymarketYes–
Dec 4, 2025TrumpKalshiNo0
Dec 3, 2025TrumpPolymarketNo–
Nov 27, 2025TrumpKalshiNo0
Nov 20, 2025TrumpKalshiNo0

Questions

How often is “Trump” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Trump” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 12 of 48 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 20, 2025 (25%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
What is the probability “Trump” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
40%, from settlement history (n=48). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP