Prime Minister's Questions, Sep 10, 2026
Polymarket What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Markets
17 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Yes | 57%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Speaker 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Investment | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Friend 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Speaker 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Speaker 30+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Budget | Yes | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times | Yes | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Defence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Social Media | No | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| London | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | No | 52%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Holborn / St-Pancras | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NHS 3+ times | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| King / Queen | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Immigration | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 18%n=43 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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