What is the probability “Healthcare” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?

21%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Healthcare” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Name: Prime Minister's Questions: “Healthcare” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, “Healthcare” was not said at the Prime Minister's Questions on any of the 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 20, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 21% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.

21%from settlement history only · n=18Next: PMQs, Oct 28, 2026 · counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
Streak: not said the last 10 times
Counts: named speaker only
Market: 14¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 00:14 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Prime Minister's Questions

Healthcare

Probability: 21% · n=18
Settled: 0/18 (0%)
Last 8 PMQs: said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Lewis Atkinson (Sunderland Central) (Lab)otherPrime Minister's Questions, 21 October 2026 · Oct 21, 2026In transcript

Q14. Waits for NHS mental health care are far too long. Our constituents are 200 times more likely to wait 18 months for help with…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

David LammyspeakerPrime Minister's Questions, 8 July 2026 · Jul 8, 2026In transcript

…listening to the needs of the community and already improving access to healthcare and community support. Ministers have met veterans and the Government in Nepal…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Luke Taylor (Sutton and Cheam) (LD)otherPrime Minister's Questions, 1 July 2026 · Jul 1, 2026In transcript

…build of the new Sutton specialist emergency care hospital—build it today, not in 2034—to ensure safe and modern healthcare and maternity facilities for my constituents?

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.