Will “Reform” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Reform” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 24 of 28 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 19, 2025 (86%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=28, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 4 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4 of them.

41%from settlement history only · n=28Next: PMQs, Oct 28, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no no no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
74¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=reform

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Prime Minister's Questions

Reform

Probability
41% · n=28
Settled
24/28 (86%)
Last 8 PMQs
said in 4 of 4 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · our count 1 · the market settled no

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.

Andy BurnhamspeakerqaIn transcript

…a decade of division when she drew a line between her and Reform for suggesting that her children were not British. That is wrong in…

Maureen Burke (Glasgow North East) (Lab)otherqaIn transcript

…crippled local public services, and Glasgow city council’s response has fallen short, Reform is exploiting public safety fears to stoke racial division in our welcoming…

Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.

What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · settled no

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What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · our count 1 · the market settled no

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Find “Reform” in this transcript

What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · not listed

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What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · said 1 time (counts)

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Find “Reform” in this transcript

What will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions? · not listed

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What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · not listed

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What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 29 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026ReformPolymarketYes–
Oct 21, 2026ReformKalshiYes–
Oct 14, 2026ReformPolymarketNo1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 30, 2026ReformPolymarketNo–
Sep 16, 2026ReformKalshiNo1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement)
Sep 9, 2026ReformKalshiYes1
Jun 10, 2026ReformPolymarketYes–
Jun 4, 2026ReformPolymarketYes–
May 20, 2026ReformKalshiYes3
Apr 29, 2026ReformKalshiYes5
Apr 22, 2026ReformKalshiYes2
Apr 15, 2026ReformKalshiYes6
Mar 25, 2026ReformPolymarketYes–
Mar 25, 2026ReformKalshiYes12
Mar 18, 2026ReformKalshiYes3
Mar 11, 2026ReformKalshiYes4
Mar 4, 2026ReformKalshiYes2
Feb 25, 2026ReformKalshiYes5
Feb 19, 2026ReformKalshiNo–
Jan 22, 2026ReformKalshiYes7
Jan 15, 2026ReformKalshiYes15
Jan 14, 2026ReformPolymarketYes–
Jan 8, 2026ReformKalshiYes7
Dec 18, 2025ReformKalshiYes4
Dec 11, 2025ReformKalshiYes8
Dec 4, 2025ReformKalshiYes5
Nov 27, 2025ReformKalshiYes14
Nov 20, 2025ReformKalshiYes3
Nov 19, 2025ReformPolymarketYes–

Questions

How often is “Reform” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Reform” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 24 of 28 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 19, 2025 (86%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
What is the probability “Reform” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
41%, from settlement history (n=28). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Reform’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/reform (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=reform · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP