Will “Defense / Defence” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Defense / Defence” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 8 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 25, 2026 (67%), most recently on Jun 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no yes yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Defense / Defence
- Probability
- 55% · n=12
- Settled
- 8/12 (67%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 3 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…not be the growth Budget that our country needs. This week, Ukraine’s defence system was seriously undermined by the US restricting access to Elon Musk’s…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…the Prime Minister what should be in it: cutting welfare to fund defence. In a BBC interview on Sunday, the Defence Secretary refused to commit…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…the Prime Minister was or was not going to fund 3% for defence by 2030. After today he will have another five weeks off PMQs,…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…do so. We spend more servicing our debt than we do on defence—almost double. There is war in Europe. Yesterday, Germany confirmed that Russia was…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…ever, including previous Labour Governments. We have put the biggest investment into defence and security, and our international standing has been restored. We also pulled…
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Defense / Defence |  Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Defense / Defence | Kalshi | Yes | 22 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Defense / Defence | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 20, 2026 | Defense / Defence | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Defense / Defence | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Defense / Defence | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Defense / Defence | Kalshi | Yes | 16 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Defense / Defence | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Defense / Defence | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Defense / Defence | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Defense / Defence | Kalshi | Yes | 11 |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Defense / Defence | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Defense / Defence” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Defense / Defence” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 8 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 25, 2026 (67%), most recently on Jun 17, 2026.
- What is the probability “Defense / Defence” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Defense / Defence’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/defence-or-defense (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=defence%20%2F%20defense · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP