Prime Minister's Questions, Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Markets
14 words · 0 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform | No | 75%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| NHS | No | 71%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Mr Speaker 20+ times | No | 69%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Defence | No | 53%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Budget | No | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Mr Speaker 30+ times | No | 46%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Wales | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Scotland | No | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| King / Queen | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mr Speaker 12+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Northern Ireland | No | 26%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Immigration | No | 24%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 20%n=42 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-andy-burnham-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event-20260916 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP