Will “Benefit / Welfare” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Benefit / Welfare” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 21, 2026.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 4 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 72¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Benefit / Welfare
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 4 of 4 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…are they going to respond to what the report said yesterday? On welfare, I will do the same. I do not want to see anybody…
…see a country where young people in their 20s are stuck on benefits. I want a system where we give the right support to young…
…and I do not think that taking £4 billion out of housing benefit is going to get the right consensus around this issue. That would…
…was quite clear in my statement about the need to get the welfare bill down. I do not want to be a Prime Minister who…
…stripping money from where it is needed and squandering it on the welfare bill, which has ballooned by £20 billion this year alone. He talks…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Benefit / Welfare |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often is “Benefit / Welfare” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Benefit / Welfare” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “Benefit / Welfare” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Benefit / Welfare’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/benefit-or-welfare (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=benefit%20%2F%20welfare · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP