Prime Minister's Questions, Jul 8, 2026
Polymarket What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Markets
29 words · 17 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mr. Speaker 20+ times | Yes | 71%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Labour | Yes | 70%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Poverty | Yes | 64%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hate / Hatred | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Record Investment | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Social Media | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Waiting List | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Defense | Yes | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Constituent / Constituency | Yes | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Public | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Violent / Violence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mr. Speaker 30+ times | Yes | 38%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Thank 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Condolences | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World Cup | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | 11%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Ban | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NHS 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Scotland | No | 55%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Victim | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crime / Criminal | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Record Funding | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shadow | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Urgent | No | 27%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Northern Ireland | No | 25%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| United States | No | 23%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Europe | No | 21%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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