Will “Iran” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 7 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 21, 2026 (54%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 4 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 23¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Iran
- Probability
- 40% · n=13
- Settled
- 7/13 (54%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 1 of 4 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Lindsay Foreman since January 2025, when they were arrested and detained by Iran, and presented with fake charges of espionage. I thank the Foreign Secretary…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…hon. Friend the Home Secretary has established. On the issues related to Iran, obviously we have seen the issues at RAF Fairford recently. They have…
…armed forces are not sucked into an aimless and dangerous war with Iran could—in fact, I believe they will—prove to be his most important legacy.…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…struggling for a solid defence plan. [Laughter.] The wars in Ukraine and Iran show us how seriously we must take the threat of missiles and…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 15 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Iran |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Iran |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Iran | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Iran | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Iran” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Iran” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 7 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 21, 2026 (54%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Iran” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP