Will Donald Trump say “Greenland”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Greenland” at 24 of 62 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 7, 2025 (39%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=62, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.

38%from settlement history only · n=62Next: Posts window, Oct 25, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no yes no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
58¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Greenland

Probability
38% · n=62
Settled
24/62 (39%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina · Oct 21, 2026 · 44:10In transcript

…well. I made the I made and I don't forget I got Greenland. Remember they said, "Oh, how ridiculous." Remember, look at my senators. They…

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 1:09:01In transcript

…and they said, no. But they were nice enough to give us Greenland, despite all the bad talk. Oh, he's not going to get it.…

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 26:24In transcript

…States has also reached an unprecedented agreement regarding the northern frontier of North America, the large and strategically vital piece of land known as Greenland.

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 31, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes5
Oct 25, 2026GreenlandPolymarketYes3
Sep 30, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes23
Sep 28, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo–
Sep 13, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (16 of 18 known appearances transcribed))
Sep 12, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo0
Sep 6, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 6 known appearances transcribed))
Sep 3, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo–
Aug 31, 2026GreenlandPolymarketNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (25 of 36 known appearances transcribed))
Aug 31, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (25 of 36 known appearances transcribed))
Jul 31, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes10
Jul 12, 2026GreenlandPolymarketYes10
Jul 9, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo–
Jul 8, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo0
Jun 30, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes2
Jun 24, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo0
May 31, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Apr 30, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Apr 8, 2026GreenlandPolymarketNo–
Apr 8, 2026GreenlandKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Mar 31, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Mar 17, 2026GreenlandPolymarketNo–
Mar 3, 2026GreenlandPolymarketNo–
Mar 3, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo–
Feb 28, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Feb 24, 2026GreenlandPolymarketNo–
Feb 24, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo–
Feb 3, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo–
Feb 1, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes8
Jan 30, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo–
Jan 29, 2026GreenlandPolymarketNo–
Jan 29, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo–
Jan 28, 2026GreenlandPolymarketNo–
Jan 28, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes–
Jan 28, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo–
Jan 27, 2026GreenlandPolymarketNo–
Jan 24, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo–
Jan 23, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes–
Jan 22, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes–
Jan 22, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes–
Jan 21, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes8
Jan 21, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes–
Jan 20, 2026GreenlandPolymarketYes–
Jan 18, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo–
Jan 16, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo–
Jan 15, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes–
Jan 14, 2026GreenlandPolymarketYes–
Jan 14, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo–
Jan 14, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo–
Jan 13, 2026GreenlandPolymarketNo–
Jan 10, 2026GreenlandKalshiYes–
Jan 9, 2026GreenlandKalshiNo–
Dec 24, 2025GreenlandPolymarketNo–
Jun 16, 2025GreenlandKalshiNo–
May 6, 2025GreenlandPolymarketNo–
May 2, 2025GreenlandPolymarketNo– (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
Apr 24, 2025GreenlandPolymarketYes–
Apr 8, 2025GreenlandPolymarketNo–
Mar 31, 2025GreenlandPolymarketNo–
Mar 13, 2025GreenlandPolymarketYes–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Greenland”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Greenland” at 24 of 62 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 7, 2025 (39%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Greenland” next time?
38%, from settlement history (n=62). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Greenland’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/greenland (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=greenland · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP