Donald Trump: Monthly window, Oct 31, 2026

By Oct 31Monthly windowHistory onlyDonald Trump

Updated

Coverage

31 known appearances
5 of 31 known appearances transcribed Window: Oct 1, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 509 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (115 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.

Markets

26 words · 16 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Deal / Settle / Settled Yes8287✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Barack Hussein Obama Yes1616✓69%n=179 from settlement history–
Dividend / Stimulus Yes1010✓67%n=20 from settlement history–
Greenland Yes58✓42%n=61 from settlement history–
Cognitive Yes44✓64%n=8 from settlement history–
Space Force Yes34✓68%n=33 from settlement history–
Who are you with / Where are you from Yes22✓63%n=47 from settlement history–
Third Term Yes22✓42%n=19 from settlement history–
Zohran / Mamdani Yes22✓41%n=42 from settlement history–
UFC Yes11✓66%n=46 from settlement history–
Pelosi Yes11✓65%n=16 from settlement history–
Aluminum Yes11✓55%n=7 from settlement history–
Newscum Yes11✓47%n=78 from settlement history–
Ceasefire Yes11✓26%n=118 from settlement history–
Filibuster Yes–0–58%n=17 from settlement history–
Moon Yes–0–49%n=31 from settlement history–
Autism open33–54%n=37 from settlement history100¢ Kalshi
Predict / Prediction open11–70%n=45 from settlement history100¢ Kalshi
Fat shot / Ozempic open–0–64%n=29 from settlement history34¢ Kalshi
Peptide open–0––n=1 too little history for a probability10¢ Kalshi
Antifa open–0–44%n=26 from settlement history31¢ Kalshi
Epstein open–0–27%n=137 from settlement history15¢ Kalshi
Make Iran Great Again open–0–22%n=11 from settlement history6¢ Kalshi
Peace in the Middle East open–0–17%n=39 from settlement history14¢ Kalshi
Golden Dome open–0–16%n=54 from settlement history30¢ Kalshi
UFO / UAP open–0–13%n=30 from settlement history34¢ Kalshi

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26NOV01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP