Donald Trump: Monthly window, Apr 30, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this month?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Apr 1, 2026 to May 1, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
27 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 78%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | 71%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Genius | Yes | – | 0 | 68%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 67%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | Yes | – | 0 | 66%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | – | 0 | 60%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Nine War / Ninth War | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| UFO / UAP | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| UFC | Yes | – | 0 | 56%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | Yes | – | 0 | 54%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | Yes | – | 0 | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| DEI / Woke | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Dead Country | Yes | – | 0 | 50%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | – | 0 | 46%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Turning Point | Yes | – | 0 | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fat shot / Ozempic | Yes | – | 0 | 41%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | – | 0 | 35%n=329 from settlement history | – |
| Pelosi | No | – | 0 | 77%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Make Iran Great Again | No | – | 0 | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein Island | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Moscow | No | – | 0 | 51%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Goat | No | – | 0 | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Third Term | No | – | 0 | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Stimulus | No | – | 0 | 35%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Discombobulator | No | – | 0 | 29%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP