Donald Trump: Monthly window, Mar 31, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this month?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Mar 1, 2026 to Apr 1, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
27 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelosi | Yes | – | 0 | 76%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | – | 0 | 73%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 73%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 65%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | Yes | – | 0 | 61%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| DEI / Woke | Yes | – | 0 | 59%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | 58%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Genius | Yes | – | 0 | 57%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | – | 0 | 57%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | 56%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | Yes | – | 0 | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Make Iran Great Again | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | Yes | – | 0 | 44%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | – | 0 | 32%n=287 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | – | 0 | 74%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Moscow | No | – | 0 | 58%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Discombobulator | No | – | 0 | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Turning Point | No | – | 0 | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein Island | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Third Term | No | – | 0 | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Fat shot / Ozempic | No | – | 0 | 41%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Stimulus | No | – | 0 | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Nine War | No | – | 0 | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26APR01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP