Donald Trump: Speech, Feb 24, 2026
Kalshi What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?
Markets
38 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | Yes | 61%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | Yes | 59%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 56%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Congo | Yes | 55%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| India | Yes | 55%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza | Yes | 54%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Iowa | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Memphis | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 49%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 49%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Korea | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Florida | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 45%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 44%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | 54%n=117 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | No | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Alaska | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Detroit | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein Island / Little Saint James | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kennedy Center | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Saudi Arabia | No | 45%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Canada | No | 45%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | No | 43%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Colombia | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Arizona | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Portland | No | 42%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mount McKinley | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Argentina | No | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| El Salvador | No | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 41%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Chicago | No | 41%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 40%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Iceland | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine | No | 32%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP