Donald Trump: Episode, Jan 24, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his address to March for Life?
Markets
15 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Faith | Yes | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Adopt / Adoption | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Family | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pro Life / Pro-Life | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unborn | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | 66%n=159 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 62%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 57%n=125 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 52%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 48%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 45%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| IVF | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bible | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Radical Left | No | 40%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 34%n=16 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP