Remarks #2 transcript, Jun 24, 2026 (Donald Trump)

Remarks Prior to a Meeting With Secretary General Mark Rutte of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and an Exchange With Reporters

In remarks on Jun 24, 2026, Donald Trump said 10 of the 24 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 23 of 24 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).

Updated

Markets

24 words · 10 settled yes · our count agreed on 23 of 24

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Oil Yes1315✓61%n=90 from settlement history–
Democrat Yes78✓53%n=164 from settlement history–
Election Yes55✓56%n=104 from settlement history–
Hottest Yes55✓45%n=262 from settlement history–
Communist / Socialist Yes57✓43%n=57 from settlement history–
Biden Yes33✓52%n=280 from settlement history–
Israel / Israeli Yes33✓41%n=58 from settlement history–
Save America Act Yes33✓27%n=17 from settlement history–
Putin Yes11✓40%n=72 from settlement history–
Dumbocrat / Dumacrat Yes00✗53%n=7 from settlement history–
Stock Market No00✓49%n=105 from settlement history–
Lebanon No00✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Russia / Russian No01✓41%n=12 from settlement history–
Ukraine No03✓41%n=66 from settlement history–
Arctic No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
GDP No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Ally No08✓39%n=2 from settlement history–
Greenland No00✓36%n=48 from settlement history–
Uranium / Dust No00✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Drone No00✓29%n=53 from settlement history–
World Cup No01✓29%n=41 from settlement history–
Hormuz No01✓26%n=54 from settlement history–
Ceasefire No01✓17%n=63 from settlement history–
Crypto / Bitcoin No00✓3%n=409 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.

Transcript

361 passages · part 1 of 3

Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.

Prepared remarks

Well, thank you very much. It's a great honor to be with a friend of mine, a man who is respected all over the world, actually, but he's in charge of NATO. He's the Secretary General, Mark Rutte. And he's really done a great job.

He was not too much involved when they weren't too nice to us in our recent little military skirmish, but he is a man that's respected by everybody. And, Mark, maybe you'd like to say a few words.

Secretary General Rutte0:33

Absolutely. And a few things I want to share with the media, with you being here at present, and it's about your leadership.

First of all, about Iran. I really want to make clear how important it is what you are doing on Iran. This is, first of all, about the nuclear capability Iran was basically getting its hands on—its hands on. And that would have been a threat to the region; that would have been a threat to the whole world. This is a country which is exporting chaos. It is exporting terrorism. And they were very near to getting their hands on a nuclear capability.

You have seen last week and with the G–7, all the leaders in the G–7 applauding the fact that this nuclear capability has been degraded. This is extremely important. And I just want to make this clear, because sometimes people think, "Why was this whole Iran thing going on?"

This is about security, about safety. This is the leader of the free world taking responsibility beyond the shores of the United States for the rest of the world. And this is what you did. I know there have been debates about whether your allies in Europe were with you enough. I just want to say one thing, which is sometimes——

They weren't. [ Laughter ]

Secretary General Rutte1:37

Yes, but let me say one thing, which is, I know you think that, but let me—and I know the—about the, let's say, your—yes, irritant—irritation about that.

But, when you look at the numbers, 4- to 5,000 U.S. planes taking off from bases in Europe in the 6 weeks this war took place—still the cease-fire took place middle April.

Bucharest, the airport in Romania, having to close. It had to close for commercial traffic because they had to make sure that you were able to send the tanker aircraft up in the air.

So this is what I know. There have been isolated cases about which you are really disappointed, but generally speaking, your European allies have been there with you. I really want to make the point. Four to five thousand U.S. planes taking off from European air bases. So that's about Europe.

Now I want to take you, if you stay here——

Yes. Go ahead.

Secretary General Rutte2:29

I go over to these boards here because I want to show you what this President was able to achieve. And I'll start with this chart. This chart is about the "Trump trillion." The "Trump trillion" shows you the increase Europeans and Canadians are paying into defense since you took office in 2017.

Right.

Secretary General Rutte2:51

Trump 45 plus Trump 47. A total of extra spent by the Europeans and the Canadians of $1.2 trillion.

When you look at the effect of Trump 47, sort of isolated effect of the extra defense spending in 2025 and in 2026, you see almost $140 billion extra spent nominal on defense by the Europeans and the Canadians. And also, this year, you will again see an increase by about $120 billion, which brings a total in 2 years of over $250 billion.

I can assure you this is because of Russia, because of the threat, but I am also absolutely convinced that you being President of the United States, being consistently pushing for something which since Eisenhower has not been achieved, which is the Europeans equalizing their defense spending with the United States, this is your evidence.

Then, when it comes to jobs, look here. In total, 195,000 jobs being supported by investments—investments from European companies into the United States, 83,000 jobs supported by that. A hundred and twelve thousand jobs created by the fact that Europeans are massively, about half of all their defense spending when it comes to defense industrial output is spent in the United States. A hundred and twelve thousand jobs.

Last year, they spent $54 billion on U.S. defense industrial output. There is now a order catalog, an order backlog, of $300 billion. So $300 billion of defense spending from Europeans buying this in the U.S. over the next couple of years, which is already on the order book.

Last year, $54 billion. A total now order book of $300 billion. Totally, almost 200,000—these are real jobs, real people, like you had yesterday when you spoke in Pennsylvania, the people behind you.

But I want to say two things more, if you'll allow me.

First of all, to get all of this done, we had to increase the defense industrial output. There is a big problem. The problem is that both the United States and the European are not producing enough. Our stockpiles have to be replenished because of the war in Ukraine and what we do there, and for all the other reasons.

You have taken leadership here. Last week, you signed the defense procurement act. You made it possible for companies to work together to be able, therefore, to ramp up their defense production.

You have been very harsh with them a couple of weeks ago. I had one of them over in my office——

It's true.

Secretary General Rutte5:13

Yes, it was really harsh. I had one of them over in my office. He was still trembling. [ Laughter ] [ Inaudible ] And I said, "This is good." This is exactly what we need, because we need this extra defense output. This is important for Europe.

When I point at all these jobs, of course, also many jobs being created in Europe and in Canada. But, again, almost 200,000 here in the United States, supported by all these investments.

But it is about defense industrial output, and this is also what the Ankara summit has to be about. The whole first day will be about defense industrial production, because we can spend as much as we want, but we need the interceptors, the missiles. We need the tanks. We need the artificial intelligence, et cetera, et cetera.

And this is what you are doing—doing that in the U.S., but also, therefore, putting all that pressure on the defense industrial base.

And finally, you were at the G–7 last week. I think that was a big success. What you've seen there is that, yes, you are President of the United States, but I want to make this point: For me, you are, first of all, the leader of the free world.

In 2 weeks, in Ankara, you will have not 7 countries, you will have 42 countries: the 32 allies—U.S. and the other 31—but also 9 or 10 other countries from the Middle East, from the Indo-Pacific. And they want to hear your lead.

You will provide it. I know this. This is what you do on Iran. This is what you on defense industrial output, on spending, and all of this. You, being leader of the free world.

And now we see it with Ukraine. The fact that Ukraine stays strong in the fight, that you still provide all the stuff they need—paid for by European and Canadian allies, fair enough. But very important for them to stay in the fight, and all the other things the United States is doing.

So I'm really looking forward to that summit. I know that Erdoğan, the President of Turkey——

Yes.

Secretary General Rutte6:56

——looks forward to receiving his good friend, Donald J. Trump.

But I just wanted to tell this story because, ladies and gentlemen of the American media, this is important. This is your President, but also leader of the free world, taking the leadership role as is necessary.

Thank you very much, Mark. Very nice.

Secretary General Rutte7:12

Thank you.

Thank you very much.

Any questions, please?

Questions and answers

Qreporter7:15

Mr. President, after all this, do you—you've been so transformative vis-à-vis NATO, and I think the Secretary General just stated that. You transformed NATO, the likes of which——

Secretary General Rutte7:27

That's a good word.

Q.——7:27

nobody would have even thought that you could have done.

After all that, do you still think the European allies, like you told me, treated you badly? And if so, what can they do to make things better?

And to you, Secretary Rutte, can you confirm that all the thousands of flights, as you stated today and yesterday on Fox News, are in compliance with the NATO Treaty, sir?

Well, let me just say, he's been a friend of mine. He's a great guy, a great leader, great Secretary General. Everybody respects him. And I appreciate your nice words, but you really have done a good job. And I think, if anybody else were in that position, we wouldn't even be meeting today, to be honest with you, because we were let down.

We didn't need help on this at all. We demolished them in literally the first week, but it would have been nice if they would have said, "We'd like to help."

Qreporter8:21

Of course.

We didn't even need it, but it would have been nice if they said that. They didn't say it.

But, as Secretary General—and he's the boss of the whole operation—he was—I believe, if I would have called him—and I didn't bother doing that, because I was doing individual countries just to take the temperature and see how they were doing. But I think if I would have called him, he probably would have found a way to help if we needed it. I feel, you know, it would have been a little bit different.

But I was disappointed. I was disappointed with Italy. I was disappointed with the U.K. He's now gone, and you know, he had a lot of problems, but we were disappointed with the U.K. We were disappointed with Germany and France. We were disappointed with most of them.

Spain is a horror show. Spain is terrible, even from your standpoint. I mean, they don't want to pay anything. They think they're in for a free ride. Spain is not a good group. Not a good group at all.

But I have great respect for this man. And so we're going to be discussing what took place, and we'll see what happens.

Thank you. Good question.

Secretary General Rutte9:23

Can I answer to your second question?

Qreporter9:24

Yes, please, sir.

Yes, please.

Secretary General Rutte9:26

Because I don't have many disagreements with the President of the United States.

Here, I have to slightly, because I do agree there is reason for disappointment. Absolutely. But my argument is this: These are isolated cases. When you look at the overwhelm—take, for example, Germany. From day one, they delivered on their bilateral—these are bilateral commitments, bit of tech—the techniques of this, but the technology. But these are bilateral commitments these countries are having with the United States. So this is not, strictly speaking, NATO. They're bilateral commitments. They all did what they promised to do.

And this led to the fourth—between 4- and 5,000 U.S. planes taking off from Europe. I would argue, it would've been very difficult to do Iran without having Europe as a power protection platform for the United States.

Delivered again, he's right. There are—it's also reason for disappointment, but this is a mixed bag.

Qreporter10:15

In compliance with——

Well, the big question is: Are they paying the 5 percent? They agreed 6 months ago, when we were together, to pay 5 percent. And for the most part, they're not paying the 5 percent.

Secretary General Rutte10:25

Well, when you look at the numbers—take, for example, Germany. So we agreed they get a couple of years to get there, because you cannot spend it in 1 year because you have an absorption problem.

You can.

Secretary General Rutte10:33

But Germany, for example——

You can. But go ahead.

Secretary General Rutte10:35

Germany has doubled it—is doubling its defense spending between 2021 and 2029. They will spend over 150 billion by 2029, which is staggering—more than the French and the Brits combined, even.

Take the Dutch, take—take—and Poland, and the Baltics, already there. Countries like Denmark, really stepping up, so—and the Nordics.

So you're—you—it's a bit of a mixed bag, but most of them been doing it. And the alliance is so much stronger because of this man.

Qreporter11:04

Are the sorties in compliance with——

Please. Yellow dress.

Q. ——11:06

with NATO treaty.

Qreporter11:07

Thank you. Thank you. Bev Turner from GB News.

You mentioned that our Prime Minister has got one foot out the door. The new guy is coming in, Andy Burnham. What do you know about him, Mr. President? And what does he need to do to improve the relationship between——

Yes. Know about who?

Q.—11:19

our two countries?

The new incoming Prime Minister, Andy Burnham.

I don't know anything. I've seen that he was, I guess, the mayor of a town. I hear he's extremely liberal. Extremely. So that means he probably won't open up the North Sea.

You know, I gave Keir Starmer some pretty good advice. I said: "Open up the North Sea. Go to Aberdeen," which was the hottest city in the whole—on the whole continent. It was the "Oil City." It was the oil of Europe. And they closed everything. It was terrible. I saw it. I saw it before my eyes, and I couldn't believe it.

The North Sea is loaded. I have had every oil company come to see me: "Sir, could you give us access to the U.K.? We would do anything to drill in the North Sea." And they haven't even found what's there.

The amazing thing is, they buy their oil from Norway, which gets the oil from the North Sea. Think of it. And they pay a big premium. Norway has got now $2 trillion in the bank. And U.K. is dying.

So they should open up the North Sea. That's an easy one. And a lot of good things are going to happen.

It's—you know, it's among the greatest fields in the world.

Peter [Peter Doocy, Fox News].

Qreporter12:33

President Trump, great night for Democratic socialist candidates last night. In the New York primaries, they swept and knocked out two incumbents.

You're from New York. Why do you think it is that now the endorsement of Zohran Mamdani means more than the endorsement of Hakeem Jeffries?

Well, they're going radical left. They're going—really, you know, you talk about the Democrat Socialists, you talk really—it's really communist. That's—these people—

I watched that woman last night. That's not a Socialist. I know Socialists. That's a—that woman is a Communist.

And you know, what they don't say is that I was 16-and-oh last night, but mine were a little more boring, a little more mainstream. [ Laughter ] They were Republican conservatives. But we were 16 and oh.

And if you look over the last 2½ years, we're about 347 and, just about, oh. That's pretty good. But nobody writes that.

But he picked three. They won. They beat a guy named Dan Goldman, who's, you know, a loser. He was one of my prosecutors—one of my many prosecutors that they used on me. Dan Goldman. Not a good prosecutor, fortunately. But he's now looking for a job.

I would—I was very surprised to see, you know, because he's a pretty liberal guy.

When they go more liberal than Dan Goldman, they're really into never-never land. [ Laughter ]

Qreporter13:57

Does this tell you that the Democratic Party's 2028 nominee will likely be—or could likely be—a Democratic Socialist?

Well, it should make it easier for Republicans, because most of the Nation is composed of sane people. They don't want to—you know, if you look throughout history, go back thousands of years, you've always had socialism and communism by different names.

It's never ever worked. It's not going to work this time either.

Qreporter14:28

Mr. President——

Yes. Yes, please. Go ahead

Qreporter14:32

Thank you very much, sir. As a Turk myself——

Whose phone is that? [ Laughter ]

Don't worry about it.

Qreporter14:41

He's calling you.

Secretary General Rutte14:42

Or the fire alarm.

Qreporter14:43

As a Turk—as a Turk——

That's right. Fired. [ Laughter ]

Qreporter14:46

As a Turk myself, I can tell you with great confidence that your presence in Ankara is eagerly anticipated. What's your message to your great friend Erdoğan and the Turkish people? Because you're going to be there in less than 2 weeks.

Are you from Turkey?

Qreporter15:01

Yes, I'm a Turk myself.

Good. Good. Well——

Qreporter15:03

And——

——I like him. He's a friend of mine. And he stayed out of the war. You know, he was a prime candidate to go into the war with Iran, maybe on the Iran side, because he's not a big fan of Israel, as you know. And I asked him to stay out. He stayed out.

And you know who else was great was President Xi of China. He could have come in. He gets half of his oil from that area. You know, I could see him wanting to, and I asked him to please stay out, and he did.

We did a good job. But he stayed out. Erdoğan is a great leader—very strong person, great military—and I asked him to stay out, and he did and so did President Xi and, frankly, so did Putin, if you really look. But you could say that Vladimir has some other things to focus on.

But they all stayed out. I mean, it was pretty—pretty amazing. People were surprised.

Qreporter15:52

Tied to that, Mr. President——

And I think that Erdoğan is—look, he loves Turkey, right? He's doing a great job. He loves Turkey. I love the U.S., but he loves Turkey, and he's doing a great job.

He's a respected man, a respected leader, and he's been a friend of mine. Now, I shouldn't say that because guys like Peter will say, "Oh, he likes Erdoğan." "He likes Erdoğan "—no, Peter won't. Peter doesn't do it. It's some of the others, let's say.

But Erdoğan is a—he's a strong man. But he's been—everything I've ever asked him for, he's done.

Qreporter16:25

And tied to that, Mr. President, Mr. Secretary General clearly pointed out that allies want to do defense business with you, and Turkey is definitely one of them. They want the—they want the F110 jet engines——

Yes.

Q. ——16:38

and they want the F–35 fighter jets. Are you going to Turkey with a big gift bag for Erdoğan?

I think so, yes. I think so. Look, he's a member of NATO. Some people don't consider him so, but he really is.

Secretary General Rutte16:50

He is.

He's a——

Secretary General Rutte16:50

Absolutely.

He's a strong member of NATO.

Qreporter16:52

Yes, he is.

Yes, I'm going to probably do something that's going to make him very happy.

Secretary General Rutte16:57

And Turkey has a huge——

Tell him hello. All right?

Qreporter16:58

I will tell him.

Tell him hello.

Qreporter16:58

I will tell him.

He's a good man.

Secretary General Rutte17:00

And Turkey has a huge defense industrial base: 3,000 companies working all over the alliance, also in the United States. So, strong contribution.

People don't know how big Turkey is in terms of their military. It's a very strong—they have a lot of our equipment—a very strong military, because of him.

Qreporter17:15

So what are your——

Yes, please.

Qreporter17:17

What are your expectations, sir, about this meeting in Ankara? What do you think—what are your expectations? What are your——

Well, except for the fact that it was being held in Turkey——

Q. ——17:24

asks?

——by President Erdoğan, I don't think I would have gone to it.

Secretary General Rutte17:28

You would have come for me.

But I might go for you. [ Laughter ]

Qreporter17:33

Not even for Mark?

I might of. You're right. No, you're right.

Qreporter17:34

Mr. President——

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