Donald Trump: Remarks, May 6, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during events with Carney on May 6?
Markets
19 words · 13 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | Yes | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Medical | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Deficit | Yes | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trudeau | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Canada 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Governor | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Percent 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ripped / Ripping | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ship | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Farmer | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Greenland | No | 42%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Roof | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cheat | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tom / Homan | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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