Donald Trump: Monthly window, Jul 31, 2026

By Jul 31Monthly windowHistory onlyDonald Trump

Updated

Coverage

53 known appearances
39 of 53 known appearances transcribed Window: Jul 1, 2026 to Aug 1, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 612 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (92 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.

Markets

33 words · 26 settled yes · our count agreed on 25 of 25

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
World Cup Yes2736✓54%n=47 from settlement history–
Genius Yes2525✓74%n=18 from settlement history–
Golden Age Yes2224✓58%n=15 from settlement history–
Crypto / Bitcoin Yes2022✓30%n=418 from settlement history–
American Dream Yes1428✓50%n=19 from settlement history–
Kamala Yes1314✓45%n=30 from settlement history–
UFC Yes1223✓55%n=40 from settlement history–
Barack Hussein Obama Yes1112✓83%n=108 from settlement history–
Greenland Yes1015✓53%n=49 from settlement history–
Palestine / Palestinian Yes813✓65%n=8 from settlement history–
Moon Yes89✓60%n=14 from settlement history–
Who are you with / Where are you from Yes88✓58%n=30 from settlement history–
Moscow Yes67✓38%n=12 from settlement history–
Dead Country Yes55✓67%n=13 from settlement history–
Newscum Yes55✓58%n=66 from settlement history–
Trump Derangement Syndrome Yes44✓71%n=16 from settlement history–
Space Force Yes44✓64%n=21 from settlement history–
DEI / Woke Yes34✓62%n=19 from settlement history–
Gulf of America Yes22✓69%n=27 from settlement history–
Predict / Prediction Yes22✓69%n=41 from settlement history–
Cognitive Yes29✓54%n=6 from settlement history–
Thomas Jefferson Yes12✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Autism Yes11✓51%n=30 from settlement history–
Third Term Yes11✓40%n=12 from settlement history–
Discombobulator / Discombobulate / Discombobulated Yes11✓29%n=25 from settlement history–
Fat shot / Ozempic Yes–1–52%n=26 from settlement history–
Pelosi No–0–60%n=11 from settlement history–
Nine War / Ninth War No–0–50%n=4 from settlement history–
Make Iran Great Again No–1–44%n=4 from settlement history–
Epstein No–0–39%n=123 from settlement history–
Knicks No–0–38%n=14 from settlement history–
Epstein Island No–0–38%n=3 from settlement history–
UFO / UAP No–0–33%n=12 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP