Donald Trump: Weekly window, Sep 13, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
18 known appearances16 of 18 known appearances transcribed Window: Sep 7, 2026 to Sep 14, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 67 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (11 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.
- Sep 8, 2026 Remarks at the Tunnel to Towers Foundation's Steel Across America Event Official transcript
- Sep 9, 2026 Remarks and an Exchange With Reporters Prior to Departure From Joint Base Andrews, Maryland Official transcript
- Sep 9, 2026 Remarks at the Republican National Committee Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas Official transcript
- Sep 10, 2026 Donald Trump: Ingraham Angle transcript pending
- Sep 10, 2026 Remarks on Signing the Hershel 'Woody' Williams National Medal of Honor Monument Location Act in Arlington, Texas Official transcript
- Sep 10, 2026 Remarks in an Exchange With Reporters Prior to Departure From Dallas, Texas Official transcript
- Sep 10, 2026 Remarks at the Republican National Committee Midterm Convention Closing in Dallas, Texas Official transcript
- Sep 11, 2026 Donald Trump: Ingraham Angle transcript pending
- Sep 11, 2026 Remarks on the 25th Anniversary of the September 11, 2001, Terrorist Attacks in Arlington, Virginia Official transcript
- Sep 11, 2026 Remarks and an Exchange With Reporters Prior to Departure From Joint Base Andrews, Maryland Official transcript
- Sep 12, 2026 Remarks Prior to a Meeting With Prime Minister Micheál Martin of Ireland and an Exchange With Reporters in Dublin, Ireland Official transcript
- Sep 12, 2026 Remarks in an Exchange With Reporters Following a Visit With President Catherine Connolly of Ireland in Dublin, Ireland Official transcript
- Sep 12, 2026 Remarks to United States Embassy Personnel and Business Leaders in Dublin, Ireland Official transcript
- Sep 13, 2026 Remarks at the 2026 Amgen Irish Open Trophy Ceremony in Doonbeg, Ireland Official transcript
- Sep 13, 2026 Remarks in an Exchange With Reporters Aboard Air Force One En Route to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland Official transcript
- Sep 13, 2026 Remarks in an Exchange With Reporters During the Amgen Irish Open in Doonbeg, Ireland Official transcript
- Sep 13, 2026 Remarks in an Exchange With Reporters at the Trump International Golf Links and Hotel Doonbeg in Doonbeg, Ireland Official transcript
- Sep 13, 2026 Remarks and an Exchange With Reporters Prior to Departure From Shannon, Ireland Official transcript
Markets
34 words · 15 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 15- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | Yes | 15 | 16 | ✓ | 74%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 81%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 11 | 14 | ✓ | 77%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 77%n=229 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 72%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 5 | 7 | ✓ | 72%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 86%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 66%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 75%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 70%n=168 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 66%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 68%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 58%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 56%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 28%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | – | 0 | – | 64%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | No | – | 0 | – | 60%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | – | 0 | – | 50%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | – | 0 | – | 46%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | – | 0 | – | 42%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | – | 1 | – | 39%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | – | 39%n=498 from settlement history | – |
| Third Term | No | – | 0 | – | 37%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | – | 0 | – | 36%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Soleimani | No | – | 0 | – | 33%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | – | 31%n=133 from settlement history | – |
| Make Iran Great Again | No | – | 0 | – | 28%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | – | 0 | – | 22%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | No | – | 0 | – | 20%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 0 | – | 18%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | – | 18%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | – | 0 | – | 14%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | – | 0 | – | 14%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | – | 0 | – | 13%n=52 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
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